Ensuring the smooth functioning of payment systems allows achieving timely fulfillment of obligations by both the operator PS and payment infrastructure service operators regarding the functioning of the PS, and the participants of PS to their counterparties. In this regard, on an ongoing basis, approaches are being developed to ensure the uninterrupted operation of substations taking into account the requirements of Federal Law of June 27, 2011 No. 161-FZ “On the National Payment System”. This working paper contains a comprehensive model for smooth functioning, as well as recommendations for business continuity management of PS in accordance with GOST R ISO 22301-2014 “Business Continuity Management Systems”.
Subject. The subject of the study is the mechanism of influence of volatility of cash flows on the stability of economic development. The volatility of cash flow is an indicator of the variability of cash flow. A volatility is a standard characteristic in the economy. However, the volatility of cash flows may increase, having a significant negative impact on the sustainability of individual economic entities. It seems reasonable to determine the mechanism of the effect of cash flow volatility on the stability of the economy, and also define the volatility of cash flows that have the greatest impact on sustainability. Goal. The research is aimed at identifying the main types of cash flows that are formed under the influence of individual decisions of economic entities. Methodology. The study identifies three main types of cash flow: laminar type, transient type, and turbulent type. The proposed approach allows us to statistically determine the type of cash flow volatility. An approach is proposed to determine the critical level of volatility influence on the stability of economic entities, which is applicable for regulating volatility. Results. Changes in the types of cash flows occur under the influence of uncertainty, which does not allow economic entities to form their expectations taking into account the real situation in the economy. It is the volatility of cash flow affecting the decisions of economic actors who have not yet had time to assess the economic situation, so they make hasty actions. It is established that the process of changing the types of cash flows is influenced by institutional characteristics, such as the level of development of the payment infrastructure, the amount of available funds, administrative requirements, etc. Conclusions. Monitoring changes in cash flow regimes should be considered as a tool for assessing crisis phenomena in the economy. The results of the study are applicable to the activities of the Bank of Russia which should predict the turbulence of cash flows. Further research in this area should be aimed at empirically identifying the factors affecting the change of types of cash flows.
This study examines the role of the behavioral cycle in the dynamics of economic development. In the economy, there are ongoing imbalances that are associated with different rates of development of economic entities. At the same time, it is not fully clear why a combination of imbalances leads to the onset of a crisis at a certain point of time. The study suggests that the trigger for the onset of any economic crisis is the formation of certain expectations associated with the existence of a behavioral cycle. The dynamics of the behavioral cycle is diverse due to the existence of different types of behavior of economic entities that demonstrate active, adaptive and reactive behavior. The duration and depth of the behavioral cycle depends on the current cultural and educational profile in the country, including the previous experience of economic crises. Changes in economic dynamics occur due to the actions of subjects with an active type of behavior. To ensure the sustainability of economic development, a policy should be implemented to identify and regulate the activities of primarily active-type entities. As a result, economic sustainability should be considered not only from the point of existing structural imbalances, but also from the point of the behavioral factor increasing their negative impact.
Analytical agencies, as well as international organizations, indicate significant risks in the development of the world economy, increasing the likelihood of a new global financial crisis in late 2020-early 2021. The main sources of risks are trade wars that lead to a crisis in the international system of trade regulation, a decrease in the effectiveness of public policy instruments, and a deterioration in the dynamics of global economic growth. An important factor leading to a slowdown in the global economy in 2020 will also be the coronavirus disease. However, it is difficult to assess the final losses from the coronavirus disease at the beginning of 2020. The combination of these negative factors, coupled with the unresolved problems of the global financial crisis of 2008, significantly increases the likelihood of a new global economic crisis that can surpass the Great Depression of the 1930s. The study systematizes the main forecasts of international organizations and analytical agencies for the growth of the world economy, as well as considers various theoretical concepts, the use of which allows you to identify the symptoms of the impending global financial crisis. Ultimately, the article offers options for reducing the negative impact of the crisis for Russia. In connection with the coronavirus pandemic that began in the spring of 2020, preliminary estimates have been made of the likely damage to the world economy and the prospects for its recovery.
The sustainability of agricultural organizations depends on the sufficiency of money needed to finance investments in fixed assets, replenishment of working capi-tal, and fulfilment of obligations. The organization of stable cash flows is a significant factor in supporting agricultural producers.
Bureaucracy and System Maintenance