Ivan Makarov’s report at the XXV Yasin Conference

April 15, 2025 was the first day of the anniversary XXV Yasin (April) International Academic Conference on Economic and Social Development, annually held by the HSE University.

This year, the conference program included presentations by Russian and foreign researchers on five main topics: economics, human capital and society, instrumental methods and models in management and the social sciences, foresight research, and international studies. As a part of discussion of the topic of foresight research, the session "New Methods and Models of Scientific-Technological and Socio-Economic Forecasting" was held.

Members of the academic community, government organizations, and the private sector participated in the session. They discussed the development and possibilities for the application of varied approaches, models and methods for forecasting the development and implementation of technologies, the transformation of society, and changes in economic activity. The session was interdisciplinary in nature: the presented studies concerned, among other things, global history, macroeconomics, digital transformation, and public administration, while relying on both qualitative and various quantitative methods of analysis.

In particular, the participants presented reports on: a structured review and analysis of a wide range of forecasting methods; the use of cyclical models for analysis and long-term forecasting of historical processes; the prospects of further digital transformation of society in the perception of Russian experts; and the use of statistical analysis and machine learning for effective short-term forecasting of consumer activity in Russia.

Among the speakers was Ivan Makarov, a Research Assistant at HSE University’s International Laboratory for Digital Transformation in Public Administration. He presented a study on improving and applying indicative analysis methods to assess the development of digital technologies and to forecast the risks associated with it. The report described a methodological study conducted to examine which aggregation methods are more preferable for analyzing indicators that correlate with each other. The study was conducted on the example of a number of indicators that assess the development and implementation of digital technologies in 122 countries around the world in year 2016. Based on the results of the methodological study and the literature analysis, a general conclusion was reached about the absence of a single most preferable aggregation method and the need to select aggregation methods depending on the tasks being solved and the current conditions of the analysis. Some aggregation methods were identified that are comparatively preferable for solving certain analytical problems, and with their help, composite indices of the level and balancedness of digital development of countries of the world were constructed. Then, I. Makarov demonstrated the possibility of using such composite indices to forecast risks associated with the development of digital technologies. The countries which fell within zones of elevated risk based on their index values during the period considered were identified, and the case of the Russian Federation was examined. The strengths and weaknesses of the digital development of the Russian Federation during the period considered were highlighted, the level of associated risks was assessed, and a retrospective recommendation was given regarding the high priority of developing government regulations of digital technologies as part of measures to support digital development at that time. The presented study became a contribution to the development of indicative analysis methods and demonstrated one of the approaches to forecasting risks associated with digital development of societies and states.

The presented reports became a subject for active discussion among the participants and listeners of the session. At the conclusion of the session, the moderator Alexander Chulok, Director of HSE University’s Centre for Science and Technology Foresight, noted the high value of the session for researchers in the field of foresight studies and emphasized the diversity of approaches to forecasting that were covered by the speakers, recommending that researchers flexibly use various methods, adapting to the goals, tasks and conditions of the foresight studies being conducted.